The conflict in Iran widens again over the weekend after global stocks and bonds sell off aggressively. Brent crude jumps again, and the US dollar strengthens. And consumer confidence falls in both the United States and New Zealand. And then in our deep-dive interview, ANZ Economist Henry Russell looks at why the Fed is likely to look through the latest energy price shock, even though it was criticized for doing the same thing in 2022, when inflation failed to recede quickly. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at ⁠https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/⁠

Oil rises 5% on uncertainty about a US peace deal with Iran. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is concerned about higher inflation expectations becoming embedded, and ANZ Research has lowered its Australian GDP forecasts. And then in our deep-dive interview, ANZ Commodities Strategist Soni Kumari analyses how gold has fallen since the Middle East conflict escalated as US rate cut expectations disappeared. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at ⁠https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/⁠

Oil eases and stocks rise on Middle East ceasefire hopes, even as Iran rejects a US peace plan. And Australia’s annual inflation fell slightly in February, as household spending eased off. And then in our deep-dive interview, ANZ Agri Economist Matt Dilly explains how the oil price shock is affecting global fertiliser prices and on-farm costs in New Zealand. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at ⁠https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/⁠

Oil is back up 5% as caution returns to the outlook for the Middle East conflict. The RBNZ signals no knee-jerk moves but is watching inflation expectations. And Australian inflation expectations jump to a record high as confidence plunges. And then in our deep-dive interview, ANZ Senior Rates Strategist Jennifer Kusuma looks at the tail end risks for Asian economies from a prolonged supply shock due to the Middle East conflict. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at ⁠https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/⁠

US President Donald Trump has postponed his threatened strikes on Iranian power and desalination plants. Markets rally on hopes for de-escalation. And New Zealand’s new Reserve Bank Governor, Anna Breman, speaks today. And then in part two of a deep-dive interview with ANZ Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Hynes, he details why any resumption of oil production won’t be easy, or quick. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at ⁠https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/⁠

US President Donald Trump threatens to destroy Iran’s power and water plants. In response, Iran threatens to strike US infrastructure across the Persian Gulf. Markets are set to react badly. Also, ANZ Research changes its call for the next Fed cut. And then in our deep-dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Hynes explains how the latest strikes on oil and gas infrastructure in the Gulf will change global energy markets, structurally. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at ⁠https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/⁠

Oil hits US$119 a barrel after Iran hits Qatar’s big LNG plant hard. Gas prices rise 35%. The Fed, Bank of Japan and the ECB all hold rates to take stock of the Middle East conflict. Australia’s jobless rate rises. And then in our deep-dive interview, ANZ Senior Economist Matthew Galt analyses how New Zealand’s economy hung onto growth in Q4. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Oil climbs and stocks fall as Persian Gulf facilities are hit. Australia’s jobs market likely remained tight in February. Attention now turns to the Bank of Japan and ECB after the Fed’s rate decision as this podcast goes to air. And then our deep-dive interview, ANZ Economist Vicky Xiao Zhou analyses how exposed Asia’s economies are to oil and LNG from the Middle East. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The RBA hikes rates again in a close 5-to-4 vote. Another is on the cards for May. West Texas Oil futures rose about 2% overnight; And all eyes are now on how the Fed reacts to the Middle East conflict tomorrow. And then our deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of Geopolitical Risk, Cameron Mitchell analyses the chances of a longer and wider conflict in the Middle East. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

A few oil tankers have started moving through the Strait of Hormuz, but only from India, China & Turkey. So oil prices softened. And all eyes in Australia are on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s expected rate hike later today. And then our deep-dive interview, ANZ New Zealand’s Chief Economist Sharon Zollner takes a closer look at how the Reserve Bank of New Zealand might, or might not, react to the energy price shock coming out of the Middle East conflict. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/